Sunday, September 2, 2012

SMU @ Baylor

Scouting Report for SMU Mustangs(0-0) vs. Baylor Bears (0-0)
September 2, 2012-Floyd Casey Stadium Waco, TX

SMU: The Mustangs are looking to build off their momentum that started near the end of last season. In their final two games, SMU knocked off Rice 27-24 and Pittsburgh 28-6 in the BBVA Compass Bowl. To give benefit of the doubt to these teams, Rice was 4-8 and Pittsburgh was in coaching limbo when Todd Graham took the Arizona State job. Either way, these were games the Ponies should've (and did) win.

SMU will have someone new, yet familiar in the QB position. Garrett Gilbert, formerly of the Longhorns will make his 1st start since shoulder surgery. In his last start against the Bears in 2010 (Longhorns lost 30-22), Gilbert completed 22 of 39 passes for 231 yards and one interception. He was also their leading rusher with 79 yards on 8 carries and a touchdown. We'll have to see if FB Zach Line can do some damage against the Baylor D-Line (208 carries, 5.9ypc and 17 TDs in 2011). DE Margus Hunt will be looking to make his mark in Baylor's offense(27 tackles, 3 sacks in 11 games last season).

Baylor: The Bears closed out last year with a bang. They finished the season on a 6 game winning streak, won the highest scoring bowl games in the BCS era (123 point, Washington had 56 points) and Robert Griffin III won the first Heisman in school history. Now that RG-3 is gone to the NFL, it's a going to be a new and interesting chapter in Baylor football.

Baylor will have a similar situation at QB when senior Nick Florence will make his first start since 2009 when the Bears lost to Texas A&M 38-3 (11-21, 177 yds and 1 INT).The entire secondary will return and hopefully keep the Mustangs offense in check.

What to watch for: Will this be an old Southwest Conference shootout? We'll have to wait and see. Gilbert is actually in a familiar system that he played while at Lake Travis HS. But SMU head coach June Jones uses more of a run-and-shoot approach.

During Baylor's 6 game winning streak, the defense surrendered 38.2 points while winning on average by 13.6. With SMU winning every contest last season when they scored 21 points or more, this could be more of a scoring spree if the secondary continues to give up big plays.

Conclusion: The Bears may have lost quite a bit of fire power when RG-3 and Kendall Wright now gone to the NFL, but that doesn't mean that head coach Art Briles won't find a way to get a win. Currently, Baylor has won their last 3 opening games (all at home). But with the Ponies headed to the Big East in 2013, they're going to want to make statement tonight.

Prediction: Baylor by 4.


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