Saturday, September 1, 2012

North Texas @ LSU

Scouting Report for North Texas Mean Green (0-0) vs. LSU Tigers (0-0)
September 1, 2012-Tiger Stadium Baton Rouge, LA

North Texas: The Mean Green have had a pretty busy offseason. Back in February, head coach Dan McCarney suffered a mild stroke. Fortunately, there was no damage and he's been back at work since. And then in May, North Texas announced they are joining Conference USA in 2013. UNT finished last season (5-7) on a high note with a 59-7 win over Middle Tennessee State, their last game against an SEC school didn't go too well (loss to Alabama 41-0 9/17/2011). While the odds are against them, there are some things to consider.

The Sun Belt Conference last season was pretty tough. Arkansas State became only the second team to win 10 regular season games, but the first to win the conference. Louisiana Lafayette won the conference's only bowl game (35-32 New Orleans Bowl over San Diego State). Florida International and Western Kentucky made big strides with winning seasons as well. So if UNT is going to make a grand exit from the Sun Belt, they'll have to start in Death Valley.

LSU: Not to be outdone, the Tigers have had some issues of their own. First, LSU lost the national championship (21-0 to Alabama). Then, 2011 Heisman candidate Tyrann Mathieu was reportedly kicked off the team for drug use. Turns out he'll go through rehab and then come back. And to make matters complicated, Hurricane Isaac came on Wednesday and delayed some practice time. But it didn't delay the game.

Other than that, everything else has been going as smooth as expected. This will be the first start for Zach Mettenberger. Last season, he was the 3rd string quarterback who played in two games last season. But he'll do just fine in this game. With RB's like Michael Ford, Spencer Ware, Alfred Blue and Kenny Hilliard who combined for 2338 yards on 444 carries a season ago, head coach Les Miles' team looks like they'll have an easy time against the Mean Green.

What to watch for: We'll have to see if Mettenberger handles his first start. Last season he played in mop up duty against Northwestern State (8-11, 92 yds, 1 TD) and Ole Miss (25 yds on 1 carry). North Texas QB Derek Thompson will have to be creative against a Tiger defense that will bring their A-Game. Other than that, let's see if North Texas secondary can have a positive impact.

Conclusion: Even though the Mean Green has a secondary that lacks experience, the Tigers lack experience with their quarterback. If LSU's defense has their way with UNT's offense, then this will be, no doubt, an easy victory for the Tigers.

The one thing that North Texas has to consider...upsets do happen. If they have that mindset of Appalachian State (upset Michigan State 35-32 in 2007) and James Madison (upset Virginia Tech 21-16 in 2010), the Mean Green could make this game a contest. But, that's easier said than done. Western Kentucky was the latest Sun Belt team to attempt that feat (LSU 42-9 in 2011). North Texas might not fare any better.

Prediction: LSU by 27.


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